没想到 2019 的最后半个月会过的如此狼狈,以至于这篇 routine 小作文不得不在飞机上完成,一年也没飞几十趟的我竟然在最近 10 天飞了 6 趟,广深,银川,竟然还猝不及防的加上了一趟长沙。累到一上飞机就睡,每天睡眠时间方差巨大,要不就是 4-6 小时,要么就 10 小时。这是不是意味着 2020 年要在忙碌中开启了呢?
今年是工作的第一个完整年度,最大的改变大概就是脱离学校吧。学校其实一直是后盾,你永远知道自己未来一段时间身处何方,而进入社会则完全不同,在这个时间点,不禁更加觉得当年没有读研是一个正确的选择。经济下行第一个传导到的就是金融行业,首当其冲的就是手无寸铁的应届生。都说去年下半年是寒冬,今年的行情只能说寒冬是常态吧,总是觉得我们这代人少了点发财致富的机遇,不过也只能安慰自己,持续准备,才能让机会到来的时候抓住。
如果说每年的关键词都离不开成长的话,今年可能是量变到质变的过程,当然可能之后的每年也都会这么说。生活上,落户上海,背上房贷,虽然理性上拉长时间维度未必是最优的策略,但是当突然觉得自己在某个地方有了家之后,心态的变化真不是语言能表述的。工作上也接触了更多的人和事,也深入跟进和管理项目,才觉得,创业真不容易,但是丰厚的潜在回报又在持续的吸引人进入,未来怎么走呢,心中总是来回摇摆。做投资已经同简单打工心态有所不同,但是还是会被这些更高风险高回报的东西吸引。就像前两天在阿拉善看 portfolio 发射火箭,有多少意外,又有多少可能对后续不确定性的影响,都是不可控的。又像年初紧密跟进的一家公司,年中就高管换人,年末可能就廉价卖出。不禁思考,我什么时候会去创业呢,或者要不要考虑什么副业?又做些什么投资呢,风险和回报如果平衡呢。这一年看到了太多之前不了解的赚钱方法,有的搞不好会进去,有的纯资本投入,有的纯人工投入。我思来想去还是觉得要是做事业还是要做壁垒高的事情,真有 capex 投入也可以接受,但是做生意,还是做一本万利的事吧,别赔了夫人又折兵,典型的比如拉皮条。资源型的才是爽啊,这半年才终于慢慢理解权力的可变现路径之广,想想也是有趣。大概是柴米油盐吧(虽然不做饭),让我对财富有了极大的憧憬,从未像现在一样想暴富,突然觉得挺没骨气的。可能也是有时讨厌那个有点抠门的自己吧,也有点讨厌需要算房贷和还款日的感觉了。
这一年虽然放松的时间不少,但没出国几趟,想想明年怎么也要重回欧洲了,今年的格鲁吉亚和阿塞拜疆还是比较有趣,马来还可以啦,但是越南真的一言难尽,让人完全没有放松的感觉,今年突然觉得旅游可能要换一种方式了,多点自驾,多点深度体验,少点走马观花,多去些人少的地方吧。
今年回家的时间反而比往年多了起来,数一数和爸妈相见的最长间隔也就大概 2 个月,甚至还陪外公外婆回了一趟海南,看外公那么开心,真是觉得好哇。
如果说对现在的生活什么态度,我还是挺满意的吧,有足够的输入和自己能力的发挥点,生活工作平衡也做的不错,每天的休息也能保持的比较好,不睡饱真的受不了,但是隐隐有些不安具体是什么好像也有点说不清。那就交给时间吧,可能有一天就突然想换一种生活了呢?
突然想起,明年我们炒团就要解散了,就又多了一些年末的悲伤,妹妹们的成长伴随我的成长,大概明年解散演唱会会哭吧。一首一听过就爱了的歌《风》,一起迎着风,一起飞行好吗?
致我的 2019,我的二十三岁
I didn't expect the last two weeks of 2019 to go this raggedly — enough that this routine little essay has to be finished on a plane. I don't fly more than a few dozen times in a year, and yet in the last ten days I've flown six: Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Yinchuan, and then, out of nowhere, Changsha on top of it. Tired enough that I fall asleep the moment I board, with the variance in my nightly sleep enormous — either four to six hours or ten. Does that mean 2020 is going to open in a rush?
This was my first full year of work, and the biggest change is probably leaving school behind. School was always a backstop: you always knew where you'd be for the next stretch. Entering the working world is completely different, and at this particular moment I feel more strongly that not going to grad school was the right call. The first thing a downturn transmits into is finance, and the ones taking the brunt of it are fresh graduates with nothing to defend themselves with. Everyone said the second half of last year was a hard winter; this year's conditions suggest hard winter is simply the norm. I keep feeling our generation got fewer chances to strike it rich — though all I can do is tell myself that only by staying prepared can I catch the opportunity when it comes.
If growth is inescapably the keyword of every year, this year was probably quantity turning into quality — though I'll probably say that every year from now on. In life: registered residency in Shanghai, a mortgage on my back. Rationally, over a long enough horizon it may not be the optimal strategy, but the change in mindset once you suddenly feel you have a home somewhere is genuinely beyond words. At work I dealt with more people and more situations, and followed and managed projects closely, which taught me that building a company is genuinely hard — and yet the rich potential returns keep pulling people in. Which way do I go? The scales keep swinging. Doing investing is already a different mentality from simply having a job, and yet I'm still drawn to the higher-risk, higher-return things. Like the other day in Alxa, watching a portfolio company launch a rocket: how many things can go wrong, and how much any of them might affect the uncertainty downstream, is all beyond control. Or the company I followed closely at the start of the year, which changed executives by mid-year and may be sold off cheaply by the end. It makes me wonder: when will I start something of my own? Or should I consider a side business? And what should I invest in, and how do you balance risk against return? This year I saw far too many ways of making money that I hadn't known about — some that could land you in prison, some pure capital, some pure labor. Thinking it over, I still believe that if you're building a career, build something with high barriers; real capex is acceptable. But if you're running a business, run one where a small stake returns many times over, and don't lose the wife along with the soldiers. This half-year I've finally started to understand how broad the paths for converting power into money are, which is interesting to think about. It's probably the daily rice-and-oil of it (even though I don't cook) that has given me such a strong hunger for wealth; I've never wanted to get rich the way I do now, and it suddenly strikes me as rather spineless. Maybe I also dislike the slightly stingy version of myself, and I've come to dislike the feeling of having to calculate mortgage payments and due dates.
I had plenty of downtime this year but didn't get abroad much. Next year I really should get back to Europe. Georgia and Azerbaijan this year were fairly interesting, Malaysia was fine, but Vietnam is genuinely hard to describe — it left me feeling not the least bit relaxed. This year I suddenly felt travel needs a different mode: more driving myself, more depth, less skimming past things on horseback, and more places with fewer people.
I actually went home more this year than in years past — counting it up, the longest gap between seeing my parents was about two months, and I even went back to Hainan with my grandparents. Seeing my grandfather that happy really did feel good.
If you asked my attitude toward life as it is now, I'm fairly satisfied. There's enough input and enough room to use what I'm good at, my work-life balance is decent, and I keep my daily rest reasonably well — I genuinely can't function without enough sleep. But there's a faint unease I can't quite put a name to. I'll leave that to time. Maybe one day I'll suddenly want a different kind of life.
It just hit me that our group disbands next year, which adds more end-of-year sadness. The girls' growing up ran alongside my own; I'll probably cry at the farewell concert. A song I loved from the first listen — Wind. Shall we face the wind together, and fly together?
To my 2019, my twenty-third year.