不得不承认，2022 年是我到目前为止过得最痛苦的一年，当然我相信对很多人也是类似，时代的尘埃落下时，每个人都背负了一座山。但是站在年末，似乎一切反转都变得有迹可循，我开始充满期待的 2023 年的到来。
年初过完年不久（以至于我对今年上海疫情前的记忆几乎只有一次厦门 & 广州出差），随着 Omicron 的全球迅速蔓延，国内上海逐渐成为了旋涡的中心，而我在半个月居家办公，又被整整关了一个半月后，在我 26 岁生日那天逃离了上海。这期间，我经历了情绪崩溃，对世界绝望，对人性失望，对不确定性恐惧。甚至现在我想来当时的状态无疑已经接近一种抑郁的状态，无法思考，无法主动寻求帮助和构图，无法控制情绪。逃出后，经历了一个多月的疗伤，我才能慢慢从那种心情中走出来。
下半年的主题则是被困住，因为各种疫情防控的要求，基本上想做的事情都会被层层限制，那种无力感，让人处在一种低欲望的状态，不管是对工作还是对未来的期许。于是开始投入更多的时间在生活上，运动，学习打德扑，看书。如果说这其中的获得，大概是对运动本身兴趣的有增无减，和在德扑中感受自己人性的弱点，并且用类似的心态和概率论视角对待世界的变化和自己的决策吧。同时，对宏观和周期的兴趣和研究，也让我慢慢意识到，历史的循环总在继续，不必过于悲观。关于未来，我告诉自己能做的就是耐心的等！Q3 可能唯一的光，大概是去了一趟澳门，三年来唯一的出境，也算是有了次重新思考和放松的机会。
进入 10 月，那才是今年最难熬的时间，虽然知道世界未来的方向在哪，但是看不到任何信号，而且感觉每天这个世界都在变得更差。尤其是 zzj 尘埃落定后的那一周，不管从股市还是大家的情绪来说，仿佛都到了冰点。但是往往最绝望的点，就是反转的开头。政策慢慢开始放，从房地产到防疫，但是中间波折不断，甚至有些时间点，看到了某些过去的影子。然后随着数据变得不可控，在所有人的热烈期盼中，变化来的有些出人意料，突然从某一天开始，一切都按下了加速键，新世纪到来了！
年末，在感染新冠后，整个世界都仿佛按下了暂停键，但是关于未来的预期却越来越明确，至少出国可以期待了。提前到来的一个假期，而我的乐观情绪也不断蔓延，以至于我现在甚至开始怀疑是否这个时间点我太乐观了，关于我们现在做的决策，是否有些没有预料到的风险。
对这一年的经历，年中的我愤怒而暴躁，永不原谅，永不忘记，年末的我，觉得只是经历了众多周期中的一个，已经开始展望下一段生活和机会，只是我也清晰的知道，从沙尘暴中逃出的我，已不再是踏出沙尘暴时的我。
在这一年，完成了某种程度上和自己的和解。好像之前的自己，总是习惯了一切随着自己的计划进行，认为人定胜天，认为付出一定有回报。但是今年的无力感给了我重重的一击，我是会达不到自己的预期的，是可能失败的，这些我之前不曾面对，也不愿面对的事情摆在我的面前，在经历了痛苦和挣扎之后，和自己达成了和解，认为世界就是会无法遂人愿。这看似简单而朴素的道理，却是今年才想明白，才打心里觉得可以接受的。
在这一年，对世界的认知有了翻天覆地的变化，很痛苦，因为经历了世界观的粉碎和重建。甚至多次在不同的时间点认真的考虑是否未来要继续在这个国家生活发展。不过回头想来，今年体验了很多之前无法想象的事情，收获了一些新的差异化逻辑和周期认知，也做了之前觉得自己不会喜欢的事情。对世界的好奇心有增无减，也对探索自己本身也增加了兴趣。
在这一年，体验了诸多的心态的变化。无力，绝望，暴躁，无欲无求，惊喜，充满希望。仿佛是体验最多情绪变化的一年。如果说之前只是识别出自己的心态和情绪，现在可能偶尔能够真的站在第三视角来看自己的状态，虽然很难在当下就按照最理性的方式行为，但是至少又是一个不错的开端。
所以，2022 年，我似乎什么都没做成，但是感觉到了自己的蜕变，也明显觉得自己变得更强大了。至于 2023 年，希望自己在能力圈的建设上更深入业务细节，对商业有更多的体感。同时在今年增加的周期的理解上更进一步，更快的转化成交易机会。
在年底，我先刷了《王冠》，又看了《他改变了中国——江泽民传》，浸泡在一种巨大的历史叙事里，就会更加明显的感觉到自己处在历史的一个瞬间，甚至真的是一个不小的转折点上，以史为鉴，觉得很多事情真的已经发生过多次，如何与自己相处，如何与世界相处，好像也有了一个可以寻找答案的方向。
年终歌曲，要留给那首写给新世纪的歌《New Boy》，谁说这不是一个新世纪的开始呢。
I have to admit that 2022 was the hardest year I've lived through so far. I'm sure it was similar for a lot of people — when the dust of an era settles, everyone is carrying a mountain. But standing here at the end of it, every reversal seems to have left a trail, and I'm starting to genuinely look forward to 2023.
Not long after Chinese New Year — my memory of pre-lockdown Shanghai this year is basically one work trip to Xiamen and Guangzhou — Omicron spread fast worldwide, and Shanghai gradually became the eye of the storm. After half a month working from home and then a full month and a half locked in, I escaped the city on my twenty-sixth birthday. In that stretch I went through an emotional collapse: despair about the world, disappointment in human nature, fear of uncertainty. Looking back now, that state was undoubtedly close to depression — I couldn't think, couldn't reach out for help or make a plan, couldn't control my emotions. After I got out, it took more than a month of recovery before I could slowly climb out of that mood.
The theme of the second half was being stuck. Between all the pandemic-control requirements, basically anything I wanted to do ran into layer after layer of restriction. That kind of powerlessness leaves you in a low-desire state, about work and about the future alike. So I put more time into life itself: exercise, learning poker, reading. If there was anything gained in it, it was that my interest in sport only grew, and that poker let me feel out my own human weaknesses — and taught me to hold the same mindset and probabilistic view toward how the world moves and how I make decisions. At the same time, getting interested in and studying macro and cycles made me realize that history's loops keep turning, and there's no need to be too pessimistic. About the future, I told myself the only thing to do was wait, patiently. The one bit of light in Q3 was probably a trip to Macau — my only time out of the mainland in three years, and a chance to think and unwind.
October was the hardest stretch of the year. I knew where the world was eventually headed, but there was no signal at all, and it felt like every day things got worse. In the week after the Party Congress especially, between the stock market and everyone's mood, it felt like absolute zero. But the point of deepest despair is often where the reversal begins. Policy slowly started loosening, from real estate to pandemic controls, with plenty of lurching back and forth — at certain moments you could see shadows of the past. Then, as the numbers went beyond control, and with everyone hoping so hard, the change arrived somewhat out of nowhere. From one day on, everything hit fast-forward. A new century had arrived.
At the end of the year, after catching COVID, the whole world seemed to hit pause — but expectations about the future got clearer and clearer. At least going abroad was something to look forward to again. It was like a holiday that came early, and my optimism kept spreading, to the point where I'm now starting to wonder whether I'm too optimistic at this particular moment, and whether the decisions we're making carry risks we haven't priced in.
About what this year put me through: mid-year me was furious and volatile — never forgive, never forget. End-of-year me thinks it was just one cycle among many, and is already looking ahead to the next stretch of life and the next opportunity. But I also know clearly that the person who walked out of the sandstorm is not the person who walked into it.
This year I made a kind of peace with myself. The old me was used to everything going according to plan — believing that will beats fate, that effort is always repaid. The powerlessness of this year hit me hard. I can fall short of my own expectations. I can fail. These were things I had never faced and never wanted to face, and they were laid out in front of me. After the pain and the struggling, I made peace with myself and accepted that the world simply will not bend to what you want. It looks like a simple, plain truth, and yet this was the year I finally understood it and could accept it from the heart.
This year my understanding of the world was turned upside down, and it was painful, because it meant a worldview being shattered and rebuilt. More than once, at different moments, I seriously considered whether I want to keep living and building a life in this country. Looking back, though, I experienced a lot this year that I couldn't have imagined before, picked up some new differentiated reasoning and a feel for cycles, and did things I'd assumed I wouldn't enjoy. My curiosity about the world only grew, and so did my interest in exploring myself.
This year I went through a great many shifts in state: powerless, despairing, volatile, desireless, surprised, full of hope. It might be the year with the widest range of emotion I've experienced. Where before I could only name my state and my feelings, now I can occasionally really stand in a third-person view and look at where I am. It's still hard to act the most rational way in the moment, but at least it's another decent start.
So: in 2022 I don't seem to have accomplished anything, but I felt myself transform, and I clearly feel stronger. As for 2023, I want to build my circle of competence deeper into business detail, and get more of a real feel for how commerce works. And to take this year's improved grasp of cycles one step further, and convert it into trading opportunities faster.
At the end of the year I watched The Crown, then read The Man Who Changed China, the Jiang Zemin biography. Soaking in that kind of vast historical narrative makes it much more obvious that you're standing in a single instant of history — and, in this case, at a genuinely significant turning point. Taking history as a mirror, it seems a great many things have already happened many times before, and there's now a direction in which to look for answers about how to live with myself and how to live with the world.
The song of the year goes to New Boy, a song written for a new century. Who's to say this isn't the start of one?